The NYC needs a break and an Espresso!
The Coffee market can’t make up its mind at the moment…
One day up and the next day down…. So what you may well ask?
Well, of course, the coffee commodity market (or NYC) governs the price that you pay for your high street cappuccino fix and your at home ESE espresso pods!
The market has been in a sideways trading pattern for the past few weeks
NYC is clearly struggling to the upside – unable to break 223c/ Lb last week – this, together with weaker Chinese economic data and renewed € zone problems, encouraged end of week profit taking, which oversaw market then fall back to c 216 c /lb
However – Market data for future direction is contradictory
Euro monitor forecast Commodity Price Deflation in 2012, as Global uncertainty persists
On the flip side – Speculators/ Hedge Funds have increased their bets ( by $941m) on rising commodity prices, to their highest level since September last year, based on growing US economic confidence
Similarly, a NASDAQ article entitled ‘Treading the Crucial Lows’ also seems to support upside confidence
And this sentiment was supported by the recent announcement that Colombian exports in January were 41% down year on year
The disastrous Colombian harvest of 2011 harvest was just 7.8m bags and the 2012 forecast at 6> 6.5 m bags would be the lowest in 30 years
Similarly, Vietnamese exports in January were down 48% year on year – In this instance though due to a withholding policy
The simple key will be the forthcoming Brazilian crop – Currently forecast at 50 > 55 m bags…if a new record 60m bags is realised, the market could lurch suddenly lower
So over the next couple of weeks Guru, Monkey and Monster forecast a 210 > 225 c / Lb trading range
Mainly sideways with intraday trading range volatility
Upside resistance will be found @ 222 / 229 / 232.5
And Downside support @ 214 / 211 / 208
Whatever happens in the market, place rest assured the team here at Aromo are focussed on one single objective…delivering to you, our dear customers and converts, the freshest, fullest and finest ESE espresso pods that money can buy…