Variety is indeed the spice of life…..keeps us nimble, on our toes and sharp and steely eyed
But sometimes you can get too much of a good thing and too much change is unsettling and unnerving isn’t it?
And indeed one of my favourite bands, Creedence Clearwater Revival, seem to sum up pretty well the malaise and uncertainty which pervades the coffee market at the moment in their self penned song ‘Up Around The Bend’
‘Come away, come away if you’re goin’,
Leave the sinkin’ ship behind’
Just one look and the yo-yoing of the parallel universe which is the NYC and the LIFFE and the magical movements which differentials now seem to make are enough to befuddle even the oldest trade expert
As is the bewildering array of news coming from origin advising of crops up / and crops down!
Honduras for example, reports coffee exports up 29% in 2011 / 12 to 5m 60 kilo bags… The simple engine for this growth higher productivity, as a result of higher prices! IHCAFE now forecasts 5.4 m bags next year… This signals a doubling of production in less than 10 years – impressive stuff!
But not that good when you then hear about Nicaragua!
Once the darling of the students union, during the Ronnie Reagan years of the 1980s, exports have soared 90% in June to 217k 60 kilo sacks, as those savvy farmers withhold stocks awaiting a price improvement!
Still a minnow of world production, Nicaragua’s 1.6m bag harvest contributes to a Mexican and Central American harvest which contributes a fifth of the world’s Arabica supply
Similarly, good rains in Tanzania (Africa’s fourth largest grower) are expected to boost the current harvest 2012/13 production by a whopping 72% to 55,000 MT!
Meantime, neighbour El Salvador is investing $24m in replanting and renovating 40 k acres of coffee growing land in 2014…Still a small sub 200k bag producer, but with this year’s exports + 25% , the quality of the crop produced is improving and attracting the interest of speciality roasters
Other regional origins showing growth are Dominican Republic +30%, Peru +5% and Mexico + 18%
Whilst losers include Guatemala down 10% and Colombia 16%
Meantime, in the Robusta arena, we see India reporting a 4.3 % increase to 8,800 MT, Vietnam up 3% to 25 m bags this season BUT then forecast to be down 7% next year, alongside Indonesia down a million bags this harvest, to 8.25m 60 kilo sacks
A confusing picture if ever there was one…but in totality a market of growth nearing 140 m 60 kilo bags and expected to continue to grow to 2020 to c 170 m bags…
Lean back, breathe deeply and listen for the relaxing trickle that is perfetto espresso being ‘ex-pressed’ from your Aromo ESE pod of choice…savour and enjoy!
Guru ( Andy Grelak) writes for Aromo Coffee – They are coffee experts focussed on providing convenient and tasty ways for the caffeine addict to take their medicine. Aromo supplies excellent ESE Coffee pods and superlative Senseo pods, both of which offer the espresso and filter connoisseur a no mess, no fuss, super fresh and environmentally conscious method to make stunning coffee… the guys at Aromo also have a range of Dualit branded capsules which make a brilliant and economic alternative to <a href="http://www generic zithromax australia.aromocoffee.co.uk/coffee/nespresso-capsules/”>nespresso capsules